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lesson number
 18
 
Industrial sector indicators
 
Industrial Production  indicator consists of the total output of a nation's plants, utilities, and
mines. From a fundamental point of view, it is an important economic indicator that reflects  the
strength of the economy, and by extrapolation, the strength of a specific  currency. Therefore,
foreign exchange traders use this economic indicator as a potential trading signal.
 
Capacity utilization
indicator consists of total industrial output divided by  total production
capability. The term refers to the maximum level of output a plant can generate under normal
business conditions. In general, capacity utilization is not a major economic  indicator for  the
foreign exchange market. However, there are instances when its economic implications are useful
for fundamental analysis. A "normal" figure for a steady economy is 81.5 percent. If the figure
reads 85 percent or more, the data suggests that the industrial production is overheating, that the
economy is close to full capacity. High capacity  utilization rates precede inflation, and
expectation in the foreign exchange market is that the central bank will raise interest rates in order
to avoid or fight inflation.

 Factory orders refer to the total of durable and nondurable goods orders. Nondurable goods
consist of food, clothing, light industrial products, and products designed for the maintenance of
durable goods. Durable goods orders are discussed separately. The factory orders indicator has
limited significance for foreign exchange traders.


Durable goods orders consist of products with a life span of more than three years. Examples of
durable goods are autos, appliances, furniture, jewelry, and toys. They are divided into four major
categories: primary metals,  machinery, electrical  machinery, and transportation. In  order to
eliminate the volatility pertinent to large military orders, the  indicator includes a breakdown of
the orders between defense and non-defense. This  data is fairly important to foreign exchange
markets because it gives a good indication of consumer confidence. Because durable goods cost
more than nondurable, a high number in this indicator shows consumers' propensity to spend.
Therefore, a good figure is generally bullish for the domestic currency.
 
Business inventories
consist of items produced and held for future sale. The compilation of this
information is facile and holds little surprise for the market. Moreover, financial management and
computerization help control business inventories in unprecedented ways. Therefore, the
importance of this indicator for foreign exchange traders is limited.
 
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