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Forex Lessons
Forex Lessons
lesson number
20
20
Inflation indicators
Traders watch the development of inflation closely, because the method of choice for fighting
inflation is raising the interest rates, and higher interest rates tend to support the local currency.
To measure inflation traders use economic tools considered below.
Producer price index (PPI) is compiled from most sectors of the economy, such as
manufacturing, mining, and agriculture. The sample used to calculate the index contains about
3400 commodities. The weights used for the calculation of the index for some of the most
important groups are: food—24 percent; fuel—7 percent; autos—7 percent; and clothing—6
percent. Unlike the CPI, the PPI does not include imported goods, services, or taxes.
Consumer price index (CPI) reflects the average change in retail prices for a fixed market basket
of goods and services. The CPI data is compiled from a sample of prices for food, shelter, clothing, fuel, transportation, and medical services that people purchase on a daily basis. The
weights attached for the calculation of the index to the most important groups are: housing—38
percent; food—19 percent; fuel—8 percent; and autos—7 percent. The two indexes, PPI and CPI,
are instrumental in helping traders measure inflationary activity, although the Federal Reserve
takes the position that the indexes overstate the strength of inflation.
Gross national product implicit deflator is calculated by dividing the current dollar GNP figure
by the constant dollar GNP figure.
Gross domestic product implicit deflator is calculated by dividing the current dollar GDP figure
by the constant dollar GDP figure. Both the GNP and GDP implicit deflators are released
quarterly, along with the respective GNP and GDP figures. The implicit deflators are generally
regarded as the most significant measure of inflation.
Commodity Research Bureau's (CRB) Futures Index makes watching for inflationary trends
easier. The CRB Index consists of the equally weighted futures prices of 21 commodities. The
components of the CRB Index are:
• Precious metals: gold, silver and platinum
• Industrials: crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gas, lumber, copper, and cotton
• Grains: corn, wheat, soybeans, soy meal, soy oil
• Livestock and meat: cattle, hogs, and pork bellies
• Imports: coffee, cocoa, sugar
• Miscellaneous: orange juice
The preponderance of food commodities makes the CRB Index less reliable in terms of general
inflation. Nevertheless, the index is a popular tool that has proved quite reliable since the late
1980s.
Traders watch the development of inflation closely, because the method of choice for fighting
inflation is raising the interest rates, and higher interest rates tend to support the local currency.
To measure inflation traders use economic tools considered below.
Producer price index (PPI) is compiled from most sectors of the economy, such as
manufacturing, mining, and agriculture. The sample used to calculate the index contains about
3400 commodities. The weights used for the calculation of the index for some of the most
important groups are: food—24 percent; fuel—7 percent; autos—7 percent; and clothing—6
percent. Unlike the CPI, the PPI does not include imported goods, services, or taxes.
Consumer price index (CPI) reflects the average change in retail prices for a fixed market basket
of goods and services. The CPI data is compiled from a sample of prices for food, shelter, clothing, fuel, transportation, and medical services that people purchase on a daily basis. The
weights attached for the calculation of the index to the most important groups are: housing—38
percent; food—19 percent; fuel—8 percent; and autos—7 percent. The two indexes, PPI and CPI,
are instrumental in helping traders measure inflationary activity, although the Federal Reserve
takes the position that the indexes overstate the strength of inflation.
Gross national product implicit deflator is calculated by dividing the current dollar GNP figure
by the constant dollar GNP figure.
Gross domestic product implicit deflator is calculated by dividing the current dollar GDP figure
by the constant dollar GDP figure. Both the GNP and GDP implicit deflators are released
quarterly, along with the respective GNP and GDP figures. The implicit deflators are generally
regarded as the most significant measure of inflation.
Commodity Research Bureau's (CRB) Futures Index makes watching for inflationary trends
easier. The CRB Index consists of the equally weighted futures prices of 21 commodities. The
components of the CRB Index are:
• Precious metals: gold, silver and platinum
• Industrials: crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gas, lumber, copper, and cotton
• Grains: corn, wheat, soybeans, soy meal, soy oil
• Livestock and meat: cattle, hogs, and pork bellies
• Imports: coffee, cocoa, sugar
• Miscellaneous: orange juice
The preponderance of food commodities makes the CRB Index less reliable in terms of general
inflation. Nevertheless, the index is a popular tool that has proved quite reliable since the late
1980s.
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