Consumer spending indicators
Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures wages and inflation and provides a comprehensive
analysis of worker compensation, including wages, salaries and fringe benefits. Consumer
Spending Indicators grounded on data due to the retail sale volume is important for the Forex
because it shows the level of consumers demand and their sentiments, which is initial data for the
calculation of other indicators such as Gross National and Gross Domestic Products.
Generally, the most commonly used employment figure is not the monthly unemployment rate,
which is released as a percentage, but the non-farm payroll rate. The rate figure is calculated as
the ratio of the difference between the total labor force and the employed labor force, divided by
the total labor force. The data is more complex, though, and it generates more information. In
Forex, the standard indicators monitored by traders are the unemployment rate, manufacturing
payrolls, non-farm payrolls, average earnings, and average workweek. Generally, the most
significant employment data are manufacturing and non-farm payrolls, followed by the
unemployment rate.
Retail Sales are a significant consumer-spending indicator for foreign exchange traders, as it
shows the strength of consumer demand as well as consumer confidence. As an economic
indicator, retail sales are particularly important in the United States. Unlike other countries such
as Japan, the focus in the U.S. economy is the consumer. If the consumer has enough
discretionary income, or enough credit for that matter, then more merchandise will be produced
or imported. Retail sales figures create an economic process of "trickling up" to the
manufacturing sector.
The seasonal aspect is important for this economic indicator. The retail
sales months that are most watched by foreign exchange traders are December, because of the
holiday season, and September, the back-to-school month. Increasingly, November is becoming
an important month, as a result of the shift in the former after-Christmas sales to pre-December
sales days. Another interesting phenomenon occurred in the United States despite the economic
recession in the early 1990s. The volume of retail sales was unusually high while the profit
margin was much thinner. The reason was the consumer's shift toward discount stores. Traders
watch retail sales closely to gauge the overall strength of the economy and, consequently, the
strength of the currency. This indicator is released on a monthly basis.
Consumer sentiment is a survey of households that is designed to directly gauge the individual
propensity for spending money to increase or to maintain on the same level their expenditures
connected with the satisfaction of the household current needs and, by implication, - the situation
on the labor market.