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lesson number
5
1.2. Risks by the foreign exchange on Forex
 
As it was mentioned above trading on the Forex is essentially risk-bearing. By the evaluation of
the grade of  a possible risk accounted  should be  the following kinds of it: exchange rate risk,
interest rate risk, and credit risk, country risk. 
 
Exchange rate risk is the effect of the continuous shift in the worldwide market supply and
demand balance on an outstanding foreign exchange position. For the period it is outstanding, the
position will be subject to all the price changes. The most popular measures to cut losses short
and ride profitable positions that losses should be kept within manageable limits are the position
limit  and the  loss limit. By the position limitation  a maximum  amount of a certain currency  a
trader is allowed to carry at any single time during the regular trading hours is to be established.
The  loss limit  is a measure designed to avoid unsustainable losses made by traders by means of
stop-loss levels setting.
 
Interest rate  risk refers to the profit and loss generated by fluctuations in the forward spreads,
along with forward amount mismatches and maturity gaps among transactions in the foreign
exchange book. This risk is pertinent to currency swaps; forward outright, futures, and options
(See below). To minimize interest rate risk, one sets limits on the total size of mismatches. A
common approach is to separate the mismatches,  based on their maturity dates, into up to six
months and past six months. All the transactions are entered in computerized systems in order to
calculate the positions for all the dates of the delivery, gains and losses. Continuous analysis of
the interest rate environment is necessary to forecast any changes that may impact on the
outstanding gaps.
 
Credit risk refers to the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be repaid as
agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counter party. In these cases, trading occurs
on regulated exchanges, such as the clearinghouse of Chicago. The following forms of credit risk
are known:
 
1. Replacement risk occurs when counterparties of the failed bank find their books are subjected
to the danger not to get refunds from the bank, where appropriate accounts became unbalanced.

 

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